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  • Nov
    16

    Daily Update, 11/16

    Filed under: Uncategorized;

    The Nasdaq (COMP or COMPQ) broke 2191, our strong resistance level, but is stalled at 2195. Check a two-year weekly chart to see why this is a significant level. The Nasdaq has bounced off this level at least twice. Today’s news is generally good, but is there enough positive sentiment to get to the next area of resistance at 2300? We guess not for a while, at least until Black Friday. We are fully invested with tight stops.

    The market got a roaring head start from political events in Asia. The  trigger was  the 21- member Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum agreement. APEC, which represents 54 percent of the global economy, agreed to maintain stimulus measures. After opening on a gap, the market shot up and then drifted higher until it took a hit from some quite negative Bernanke comments. It recovered slightly to end up 1.38% on the Nasdaq and 136.49 (1.33%) on the Dow.

    Reviewing the news, we didn’t see anything that would justify a continued rise. APEC was a discrete feel-good announcement that shouldn’t have any lasting effect. Retail sales were up slightlybut uneven across various categories, and the Empire State index fell back more than 11 points to 23.51 from 34.57 in October. Growth is still strong, but less so than October.

    The COMPQ moved past our 2191 resistance level to 2197. This is only a breakout if we get follow-through tomorrow. There is heavy potential resistance here, so we are skeptical. The news tomorrow has more recent retail sales, the PPI (inflation) and the market-moving Industrial Production report. They will have to be very positive to push the market higher.

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